LEON USIGBE examines the benefits and drawbacks of the Peoples Democratic Party's rotating strategy (PDP).
With President Muhammadu Buhari's eight-year reign coming to an end in one and a half years, many have argued that it is now the South's turn to produce Nigeria's next president. Buhari hails from Katsina in Nigeria's northwest. He is a member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which appears to have unofficially agreed on a southern successor for the governing party's presidential ticket in 2023. However, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the primary opposition party, has given itself a much to chew on. Despite earlier adopting and encouraging a rotating pattern in its distribution of elective offices, it is now ambiguous on the matter, giving room for different interpretations depending on what suits the actors.
Southern governors though have since made their position known, declaring openly, their preference for the emergence of a candidate from the zone as the next PDP’s flag bearer. In a meeting in July last year under the aegis of the resuscitated Southern Governors Forum, they produced a resounding declaration. “The Forum reiterates its commitment to the politics of equity, fairness and unanimously agrees that the presidency of Nigeria be rotated between southern and northern Nigeria and resolved that the next president of Nigeria should emerge from the southern region.” It was a proclamation that took their contemporaries and other stakeholders in the North by surprise and the debate around the issue has hardly had a respite since then. Most of the center of the discussion on the PDP where former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, from Adamawa state in the Northeast, was its last torchbearer.
Today, Atiku’s acolytes are actively engaged in propagating his candidacy again for the 2023 presidential election. Also declaring interest for the PDP ticket is Governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto state in the Northwest. Governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state in the Northeast has similarly indicated his wish to be considered for the ticket just as former Kano state governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso (Northwest), is expected to join the fray. Their move, despite the presence of a northerner in power in Aso Rock for eight years, is an affirmation of the lack of clarity in the rotational policy of the PDP currently. However, their supporters have advanced the view that they can only be concerned about zoning in the PDP and not on a national scale that involves other political parties. In which case, since the last Nigerian president under the platform of the PDP, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, is from the South, it is the turn of the North to produce the next presidential candidate of the party.
They have now dispatched surrogates to canvass this position where possible. In line with this, the Northern Advocates for Good Governance (NAFGG) met with the national leadership of the PDP recently to pressure it to ignore the agitation that goes contrary to ceding it 2023 presidential ticket to the North.
Its national coordinator, Mallam Mohammed Katun, presented a letter to the PDP National Chairman, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu, in his office, where the group maintained their opposition to the “the illogical pressure being mounted by some interest groups and self-serving politicians, who are insisting that the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 must be zoned to the Southern part of the country.” NAFGG argued: “For the avoidance of doubt, nobody has the right to exclude any segment of this country from aspiring for the highest office in the land, especially segments of the North that have never had the opportunity of occupying the prime position. From 1999 to 2023, the South would have ruled Nigeria for 14 years, while the North, for 10 years. Why should we then prioritize the South to take over when the North has a shortfall? Giving priority to zones in the North that have not had the opportunity should be done to guarantee equity, fairness, and justice. But even more importantly, it is our considered position that political parties should prioritize experience, competence, and capacity in choosing or zoning their presidential tickets.”
This is the position also assumed by another group of eminent leaders from the North, comprising former members of the House of Representatives elected under the PDP. Led by Hon. Mukhtar Ahmed, they are of the view that the priority should be getting the right candidate who is sellable, formidable, and has the capacity to assure good governance and promote democracy. They recalled that Northern leaders, because of their yearning for equity, fairness, and justice within the PDP, had allowed for a North/South power rotation, which saw the emergence of President Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999.
These former Northern House members argued: “The choice of Obasanjo was strategic. Obasanjo was one of the founding fathers and leaders of the party who believed could win the elections and power would be handed over to him because of his military background and international repute. He was also sellable to all Nigerians and detribalized. Therefore, what they did then accords to the point we made earlier about the candidate being formidable and sellable. Unfortunately, Obasanjo handed over to late President Musa Yar›Adua who unfortunately spent just two years and answered the call to the great beyond. President Jonathan, thereafter, took over and spent 6 years which made the South have 14 years in power, at the presidential level.
“This was why in 2019, leaders of the party in their great wisdom, zoned the ticket to the North. If the candidate had won and spent 4 years, the North would still have had only six of 20 years of PDP rule. Where then is the equity, fairness, and justice within the party in denying the North the opportunity to vie for the ticket of the PDP?” They wondered.
Former Jigawa state governor, Sule Lamido, shares the sentiments of the Northern groups, arguing in favor of Tambuwal’s presidential ambition. Tambuwal had called on him in continuation of his consultations with party leaders. Lamido does not think the PDP or another political party should bog down itself with the question of zoning but must provide the environment to throw up a competent leader for Nigeria.
Okwesilieze Nwodo, former PDP National Secretary, however, disagrees with the position canvassed by the Northern interest groups as he believes that denying the South and in particular, the Southeast the opportunity to produce the next Nigerian president, will do gross injustice to the region. “I don’t want to believe that the PDP has zoned its presidential ticket away from the South-East.
PDP should not pretend over zoning because the party has adopted it since the Third Republic when the founding fathers agreed in Jos, Plateau state to zone the Presidency to Southwest to compensate the zone over the injustice done to Chief Moshood Abiola after the annulment of the 1993 presidential election.” He warned that Nigeria’s unity “is standing on a tin tread hence, some people’s ambition should not plunge the country into chaos,” as he also expressed the belief that “if the two big political parties (PDP and APC) zone the Presidency to Southern Nigeria and Southeast, in particular, there will be absolute peace and progress in Nigeria.”
Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa, a presidential hopeful in the PDP, is also refusing to accept the party's reversal on rotation. He feels that every zone must get a taste of the presidency before zoning can be abolished. "After each zone has had the opportunity to create the country's president, we can jointly decide that we no longer wish to zone." When it is your turn, you do not declare it is your turn. When it's someone else's time, you start talking about how we should stop zoning. It cannot be done alone on one's own. We must all agree. The PDP, for example, has a power rotation clause in their constitution that moves authority north and south. How are they able to come in the middle of the day and tell you stories? I believe that one-day zoning will end,” he asserted.
The rotation has become a major nagging issue for the main opposition party, which had to speedily dismiss claims by Dr. Babangida Aliyu, former Niger State governor, that the PDP had already zoned its 2023 presidential to the North. Aliyu had in April last year, revealed that Northern governors under his leadership opposed the second term attempt of President Jonathan, a southerner because another Jonathan’s presidency would have usurped the turn of the North. “Since this (Jonathan’s re-election) was against the grain of our earlier agreement in the party, and which we, the governors in the North felt the North would have been short-changed if Jonathan had succeeded, we rose stoutly to insist on the agreement we all had. On that premise, we opposed Jonathan. But all along, Goodluck Jonathan had enjoyed every support from the governors in the North and the entire region,” the former Northern Governors Forum chair, had explained.
Aliyu's claim corroborated analysts' assumption that the requirement to adhere to zoning and have a northern president led to Jonathan's loss in 2019. However, commentators argue that if there was a compelling need for a president of the northern extraction in 2015, with Buhari, who benefited from the move against Jonathan, already finishing his tenure, Northerners who supported a northern presidency cannot now reject rotation in 2023.
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