First, the 2023 Presidential election is APC's to lose in my view for a number of factors:
1. The APC has political currency. By 'currency', I mean, the APC is the party with current political power and wind behind its back. In Nigeria the trend is the party in power has an advantage because it has control of several levers of power and ability to dispense and receive favours.
2. The PDP which is the only other party capable of winning the election, has not helped itself by being unable to manage its affairs and build back after losing power in 2015. It essentially remained stuck at 2015.
3. PDP's dilly dallying and obvious inclination to cede its Presidential ticket to the North will boomerang in my view.
▪︎As much as many believe that the North loves power, the North also has a sense of justice, not neccesarily because it is just but because it understands political consistency. The North's willingness to have power shift to the South guarantees that it will always have its turn guaranteed whenever it is its turn.
▪︎Therefore the North in its majority would likely support a support and vote for a Southern candidate that it is comfortable with on a party platform that it is more comfortable with in 2023.
4. The PDP has lost tremendous goodwill, membership and support in the North and also a great deal of the little it had in the South West since 2015.
▪︎Religion and tribalism will not be enough to help the PDP make any reasonable impact in 2023 especially if it fields an Atiku Abubakar who fairly or unfairly, rightly or wrongly is largely a damaged good in the North.
▪︎The PDP fielding an Igbo candidate equally will not do much for the Party in terms of winning the Presidency and returning to Aso Rock in 2023. Any Igbo candidate fielded by the PDP will not get any substantial support from the North at large and surely not from the South West. Both would be suspicious of the PDP and the Igbo candidate (unfairly so but that's the reality). They would feel more comfortable with any candidate the APC fields, from whatever zone.
SPECIFICALLY TO THE APC.
Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is surely a force to reckon with, or rather a force than cannot be ignored today as far as the APC ticket and Nigerian politics are concerned. Ignore or underestimate him at your own political peril. Yet he is not an insurmountable force.
However how the APC handles his case will decide whether the APC will survive or cease to exist as a major party post 2023.
I will keep some priviledged information I have to my self for the purpose of this analysis but it would be enough to say that Prof Yomi Osinbajo has more hurdles to cross than just deference to his political godfather. Permit me not to say more than that for now.
NIGERIAN PRESIDENT OF SOUTH EAST EXTRACTION
Beyond any gerrymandering or sentimental hocus-pocus, it will take a 'miracle' for someone from the South East to become President in 2023. 'Miracle' meaning it would be very difficult but not impossible. I do not need to rehash the obvious reasons for that.
Furthermore, of the two Parties (APC and PDP), it would be easier, in my considered view for a President of Igbo/SE extraction to emerge on the APC platform. This might sound surprising to many but it is realistically true because:
1. As I already stated, the APC stands a better and more realistic chance of winning the 2023 election.
2. By extension, IF the APC settles for an Igbo candidate, majority of the party members and other parts of Nigeria (especially North and SW) would likely vote for the candidate or rather the Party APC; whether the PDP fields a Southern candidate or not and especially if the APC picks a Northern candidate, especially Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. The trust quotient is very low presently.
BUT WILL THE APC PICK A SOUTH EAST/IGBO CANDIDATE?
CAN IT?
It is no doubt a remote and tough possibility but YES the APC can.
HOW?
First, let me redirect the position/opinion of some people about certain individuals from the South East aspiring to become President or indeed about running for Presidency in Nigeria in general.
I read some people saying one Igbo person or the other who is aspiring is corrupt or not clean. I want to remind such people that considerations for holding that office usually go beyond an absolute test of purity or of clean-ness. There are other factors like acceptability across other zones/regions. So someone that his or her zone/region has either been demonised as corrupt; rightly or wrongly might be acceptable or prefered by other tribes/zones because they feel he is better known to or trusted by them. A good example is Chief Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999.
Having said that, there are a number of Igbos from the SE who have either already publicly indicated interest to run for the Presidency under the APC and some others one can mention who are almost certain to join the fray soon. These include: HE Engr Dave Umahi, HE Owelle Rochas Okorocha, HE Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, Hon Emeka Nwajiuba PhD as well as MAYBE, HE Dr Ogbonnaya Onu and HE Dr Chris Ngige.
With all due respects, practically and realistically, at least on paper any of these gentlemen would have an uphill task upstaging HE Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in a straight fight for the APC ticket as things stand today in the party and the polity politically. Yet 'with a special arrangement, the devil can see God'.
HOW POSSIBLY?
Below is my gut feeling and permutation as to how an Igbo/SE man could emerge as APC candidate inspite of Jagaban's formidable stature and position in the APC.
▪︎A Muslim - Muslim ticket would be a difficult BUT not an impossible sell in Nigeria today. The North would have a difficulty finding an 'acceptable' Christian Northerner to pair with a Tinubu especially knowing that he or she would be positioned as a potential President/successor.
▪︎That not withstanding, Jagaban will push on nonetheless and may well have his way. As a matter of fact, as things stand, I believe it is his to lose.
▪︎However, I suspect that his ambition might raise so much tension and friction in the party that it might threaten the very survival of the party and its hold on power that the powers that be in the party would be compelled to sit with him to negotiate. If he can't or won't be king, he sure must remain a kingmaker. He cannot lose both.
At that point, 'ihe eji egbo ogu' or 'tie breaker' would be needed; who would be acceptable to Jagaban, a cross section of the power brokers in the party and across the nation.
I refused to use the word "compromise candidate" because it will not covey exactly what I mean.
I will quickly submit that Prof Osinbajo might most likely not be that person based on what I alluded to earlier.
I would rather believe, based on my own permutations that an Igbo/South Easterner who fits the bill I described above would then become a realistic option. On that score, I have a strong gut feeling that an Hon Chukwuemeka Nwajiuba (current Minister of State Education) stands a good position, from what I know; EVEN THOUGH I acknowledge that any of the other gentlemen I listed could be a viable option.
Remember also that HE Rt. Hon Rotimi Amaechi is also in a good position to be that person but I'm dwelling on Igbo/SE options and chances.
It is equally important to note is that while President Buhari would expectedly remain largely neutral, he will not be so aloof as to allow someone from the PDP succeed him by allowing his party to implode.
In closing, all that said, I really worry if the South East understands the game and reading between the lines.
Do we really understand the Nigerian political game beyond shouting 'it is our turn'. Well, that turn could equally be realized through the PDP and APGA. To the extent that we know that that is a far fetched proposition, why don't we tone down and maybe stoop to conquer with the APC?
Finally, inspite of all I have said here and inspite of all the attacks against him, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu remains the front runner for the APC Presidential ticket and by extension the next Nigerian President except one or two things happen.
Please this is not a prophecy. It is merely a political analysis and permutation based on my objective and careful study of the political environment and some priviledged information, just to add to the discourse. We wait and see how it all plays out.
@Uche Diala
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